Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom
(with Francisco JM Costa and João Paulo Pessoa)
Journal of International Economics 102 (2016), pp. 50-69
Nontechnical summary: VoxEU (also published by VoxLACEA and the Lindau meetings blog)
Online appendix Concordances and replication files
A recent boom in commodities-for-manufactures trade between China and other developing countries has led to much concern about the losers from rising import competition in manufacturing, but little attention on the winners from growing Chinese demand for commodities. Using census data for Brazil, we find that local labour markets more affected by Chinese import competition experienced slower growth in manufacturing wages between 2000 and 2010. However, we observe faster wage growth in locations benefiting from rising Chinese commodity demand during the same period.
The Persistence of Trade Policy in China After WTO Accession
Journal of International Economics 114 (2018), pp. 130-142
Nontechnical summary: VoxEU
Online appendix China export restrictions data Concordances and replication files
Import tariffs have fallen steeply worldwide over the last several decades, but has trade policy persisted through a rise in the use of other instruments? I study this question in the context of China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, using panel data on Chinese export policies. I find that after its entry into WTO, the distribution of China's export restrictions across industries increasingly resembles the inverse of its pre-WTO import tariff schedule. The evidence suggests that increases in export restrictions are likely to have partly restored China's pre-WTO trade policy.
On Target? Sanctions and the Economic Interests of Elite Policymakers in Iran
(with Mirko Draca, Leanne Stickland and Nele Warrinnier)
How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the efficacy of targeting in the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with substantial influence over the direction of Iran's nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. We find that the stock returns of firms owned by targeted political elites respond especially sharply to such news, though other listed firms unconnected to these elites also benefit from progress towards sanctions relief. These results indicate the 'bluntness' of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.
Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output
(with Francisco JM Costa, Fabien Forge and João Paulo Pessoa)
This paper uses a multi-run climate projection model to examine the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of agricultural outcomes in India. Weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural revenues (1-in-100-year events) are projected to become the norm, increasing by 53 to 88 percentage points by the end of the 21st century. As a result, Indian farmers will face a 16% to 33% decline in mean revenue over the course of the century, presenting a more urgent problem than changes in yield variability. Analysis using a structural general equilibrium model suggests consequences of a similar magnitude for welfare.
When are Tariff Cuts Not Enough? Heterogeneous Effects of Trade Preferences for the Least Developed Countries
(with Fabien Forge and Kyae Lim Kwon)
Draft available upon request
We study the impact of a large set of recent reforms to trade preferences for the least developed countries (LDCs). In the late 1990s and early 2000s, OECD countries greatly expanded their LDC trade preference programs, cutting tariffs on imports from LDCs to zero for a wide range of products. We show that these tariff reductions had a small positive average effect, but also that the breadth of their impact was strikingly limited. New export relationships (by importer-exporter-product) were stimulated only in cases with previous 'export experience', where countries already exported the same product to an OECD country or exported a similar product to the same importer. Tariff cuts for LDCs thus led to increases in trade flow survival and 'sequential exporting', but made no other progress in reducing the overwhelming prevalence of zero trade flows in LDCs' export portfolios.
ECO3151 - Introduction to Econometrics (undergraduate)
ECO3551 - Introduction à l'économétrie (undergraduate)
ECO4117 - Development Economics (undergraduate)
ECO6170 - Theory of Economic Development (graduate)