Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom
(with Francisco JM Costa and João Paulo Pessoa)
Journal of International Economics 102 (2016), pp. 50-69
Nontechnical discussion: VoxEU (also published by VoxLACEA and the Lindau meetings blog)
Online appendix Concordances and replication files
A recent boom in commodities-for-manufactures trade between China and other developing countries has led to much concern about the losers from rising import competition in manufacturing, but little attention on the winners from growing Chinese demand for commodities. Using census data for Brazil, we find that local labour markets more affected by Chinese import competition experienced slower growth in manufacturing wages between 2000 and 2010. However, we observe faster wage growth in locations benefiting from rising Chinese commodity demand during the same period.
The Persistence of Trade Policy in China After WTO Accession
Journal of International Economics 114 (2018), pp. 130-142
Nontechnical discussion: VoxEU
Online appendix China export restrictions data Concordances and replication files
Import tariffs have fallen steeply worldwide over the last several decades, but has trade policy persisted through a rise in the use of other instruments? I study this question in the context of China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, using panel data on Chinese export policies. I find that after its entry into WTO, the distribution of China's export restrictions across industries increasingly resembles the inverse of its pre-WTO import tariff schedule. The evidence suggests that increases in export restrictions are likely to have partly restored China's pre-WTO trade policy.
On Target? Sanctions and the Economic Interests of Elite Policymakers in Iran
(with Mirko Draca, Leanne Stickland and Nele Warrinnier)
Conditionally accepted at Economic Journal
Nontechnical discussion: LSE UK Policy and Politics blog and The Conversation
How successful are sanctions at targeting the economic interests of political elites in affected countries? We study the case of Iran, using information on the stock exchange-listed assets of two specific political entities with significant influence over the direction of Iran's nuclear program. Our identification strategy focuses on the process of negotiations for sanctions removal, examining which interests benefit most from news about diplomatic progress. The results indicate the 'bluntness' of sanctions on Iran, but also provide evidence of their effectiveness in generating substantial economic incentives for elite policymakers to negotiate a deal for sanctions relief.
The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture
(with Francisco JM Costa, Fabien Forge and João Paulo Pessoa)
Revised and resubmitted to Environmental and Resource Economics
We investigate the extent to which climate change will result in insurable and uninsurable losses for farmers in India. Shifts in the distributions of temperature and precipitation may increase the volatility of farmers' yields, leading to rising but insurable risk, and/or reduce mean yields and thus cause permanent reductions in the returns to farming. We use a multi-run climate model to predict the future distribution of yields at the district level for sixteen major crops. For the average district, we project a sharp decline in mean agricultural revenue, but relatively small shifts in volatility. This is because weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural revenue -- what had once been 1-in-100-year events -- are predicted to become the norm by the end of the century, implying substantial uninsurable losses from the changing climate.
When are Tariff Cuts Not Enough? Heterogeneous Effects of Trade Preferences for the Least Developed Countries
(with Fabien Forge and Kyae Lim Kwon)
Revise and resubmit at Journal of International Economics
Poor countries export a remarkably narrow range of products. To what extent have trade preferences targeted to the least developed countries (LDCs) changed this situation? We study a large set of recent reforms to the LDC trade preferences offered by OECD countries. Leveraging trade policy variation by importer, exporter, product and year, we show that tariff reductions have increased the prevalence of positive trade flows. However, new flows have been far more likely to emerge in cases with previous 'export experience', i.e. where countries already exported the same product to another OECD country, or exported a related product to the same importer. So this wave of tariff cuts for LDCs has resulted in an extension of existing patterns of trade rather than wider export diversification.
ECO3151 - Introduction to Econometrics (undergraduate)
ECO3551 - Introduction à l'économétrie (undergraduate)
ECO4117 - Development Economics (undergraduate)
ECO6170 - Development Economics I (graduate)